All-in Bluff

This article is a response to a move that I see over and over again at the poker table, and continually see it cost people their entire stack when it really doesn’t need to. That move is the all-in bluff.

The problem with the move is that more often than not it works, and I think that’s why people keep using it. From a risk/reward standpoint though, it’s really not a profitable move. Though it can be in cash games, especially when you’re up against a poor player you have a good read on, but typically calls smaller bets on the river just to keep you honest. During a tournament however, it should almost never be used. More often than not when the bluff is made, the pot is much smaller than the size of the all-in, and you’re putting all your chips at risk. A couple scenarios I’ve seen lately:

1) No-Limit Hold’em Tournament: About 140 players entered and there were about 100 left. We started with 3000 chips and blinds were 30/60. The action had been fairly tight for the most part, but we had a few players knocked out at our table already. There were 8 players at the table when the following took place:

The first player to act limps in, and the next two players fold. The following player limps in and right after him “Johnny” pushes in his entire stack of 4380 chips from the cutoff.

Before we get into what happened afterwards, let’s examine the bet itself.

With the blinds and two limpers, there was a total 210 chips in the pot. He was willing to risk 4380 chips to win 210. That means everyone has to fold over 95% of the time in order for it to be profitable. He’s going to get called by Jacks or better, and AQ or better. Each player has about a 4.2% chance of being dealt such a hand, so with 3 players left to act and two limpers, there’s about a 20% chance one of them has a hand they’re going to be calling with, and with the player under the gun just limping, his chances are probably higher.

Well it turns out the utg limper did have a hand, and “Johnny” was in horrible shape with all his chips in the middle with K-10 facing pocket kings.  He was knocked out of the tournament, but even if he had gotten lucky, he wouldn't have been in much better shape than he was before the hand.

2) No-Limit Hold’em Tournament: About 220 players entered and there were about 80 left. We started with 3000 chips, blinds were 200/400. “Jack” and I had just been moved to this table from one that was broken. Jack had about 9500 chips, a bit more than average. 9-handed table:

Under the gun folds, a min-raise by the next player. The next 4 players fold around to “Jack” on the button who calls with Q♦J♦. It folds around and the flop comes 10♦5♣9♦. The preflop raiser bets 400 and “Jack” calls. The turn is the 10♣. The preflop raiser again bets 400 and “Jack” calls. The river is the 10♥. The preflop raiser bets 400 once again and “Jack” goes all-in. The preflop raiser quickly called and took the pot with A♦5♦.

In this scenario, the all-in screamed “call me, I missed my draws”. Very few players are going to fold their full houses here, because if you had a better one or the last ten, you would be trying to get money, not pushing 7900 into a pot of 4200.

In both situations the players were knocked out of the tournaments because they put all their chips in on a bluff when there is really no need to. A smaller bluff is going to be just as, if not more effective in almost every situation. Putting all your chips at risk on the hope that your opponent will fold with nothing to back it up if he does call, is just silly.