Don't get stuck without intelligence, get hands now!

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Common Tells - Chapter III: Postflop Tells Part 2

1) You’re in a pot with Q♣7♣ against another player who has been doing the betting throughout the hand. The flop was K♣10♦6♣ which missed you, but did give you a flush draw so you decide to come along. The turn was the Q♦, and your opponent bets once again. The river comes the 4♠ and your opponent lets out a sigh before checking to you. What do you do?

2) You decided to call a multi-way pot preflop with 8♥7♥ and the flop is pretty scary. The flop came K♣Q♣J♠ giving you no draws or anything. You decide to take a stab at the pot anyway and chase all but one player out. The turn is a 6♥. Your opponent checks and you decide to check behind. The river is a 5♥ and your opponents shoulders slump just a bit as he checks again. What do you do?

3) You’re in a fairly loose game. You and two others see the flop which comes K♠9♠4♠. Once the flop hits the other two players in the hand both check their hole cards. What does this mean?

--------------------------------------

1) Check and don’t expect to take the pot. You opponent is weak, but not weak enough that you’re going to chase him off the pot. If he was really weak, he wouldn’t sigh openly like that, so there’s a chance he is trying to induce a bet out of you so he can check-raise. More likely though is that he has a hand like K♦J♦ where he has a decent hand, but was hoping it would get better with a straight or flush, but missed both his draws. A bet out of you here wouldn’t get a fold. This is one of those scenarios where a bet doesn’t make any sense at all. He isn’t going to fold anything that can beat you, and he isn’t going to call with anything you can beat, so a bet is a no-reward proposition.

2) Take a stab at the pot. Your opponent in this hand obviously missed his draws, probably A♣X♣, or 10♣X♣. A decent bet here is probably going to take this pot down. It would have been more believable if you had bet the turn as well, but with a hand as transparent as his he’s not going to call anyway.

3) This one depends a little bit on the player. If the two players you’re in this hand against are fairly weak, you can bet neither one has a flush already. They would have remembered if they had two spades, so they probably limped with an offsuit hand and were checking to see if they had a spade and how big it was. If one of the two players is a fairly tight player who raised preflop, then there is a chance he has a hand like AK and was checking to see if the ace was a spade. If he checks then you might want to proceed with caution since there is a good chance he has a big spade with a pair already.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Common Tells - Chapter II: Postflop Tells Part 1

1) You and one other player call a preflop raise from a loose-agressive player in middle position. You are eyeing the raiser as the flop comes and once the dealer flips the flop, you notice the raiser quickly glances at his chips before looking up at you and checking. You look down and see the flop came J-4-4. You called him with AK preflop, what do you do?

2) Your opponent in this hand is someone who has been hyper-agressive most of the night. He’s been making big bets all night and forcing people out of hands slowly building his chips along the way. You’ve been lucky enough to hit a few big hands against him and have built up a decent stack yourself. He raises from early postion and you call with 8♣7♣. One other player calls as well and the flop comes K♥J♣4♣. This time the raiser only bets about a third of the pot. What do you do?

3) There is a small raise from middle postion and a couple limpers to you on the button. You make a loose call with KJ offsuit, and the big blind calls. 5 of you see the flop which comes J♠5♦6♥. The preflop raiser bets about 3/4 of the pot and one person calls. The player to your left quietly counts the pot before calling. What do you do?

-------------------------------------------------

1) Check and fold when it comes back to you after the turn. The glance at his chips after seeing the flop is a dead giveaway, the preflop raiser hit a big hand and is looking to trap. He’s either got a 4, or pocket jacks, so you’re looking at needing runner-runner to win the pot. Even if an Ace or King comes on the turn, you’re probably still behind. This is an extremely common tell that often gets missed because you are looking at the flop when it comes instead of other players. It gets said a lot, but the flop is going to be there later, don’t miss a chance to pick up an extremely reliable tell because you weren’t looking.

2) Fold and wait for a better spot. You’ve got to ask yourself why would someone who’s been betting big and forcing people out of the pot all night suddenly change and make a small bet. While you’ve got pot odds to call with a flush draw, given the situation it seems likely that he has a hand like K♣J♥ or pocket 4s which would have you crushed, and you don't generally want to chase a flush against two pair or better.

3) Make a decent sized raise. The player counting the pot was determining his pot odds to call, meaning he’s got either a flush draw or a straight draw. If you put the intial raiser on a strong hand, you can fold here, but calling isn’t the right move. You don’t want to give someone pot odds to call with their draws.

Monday, June 27, 2011

Common Tells - Chapter I: Preflop Tells

This series is going to focus on some of the more common tells you’ll see in poker. Each chapter will focus on tell in a specific scenario, this chapter on preflop tells. This is chapter 1 of a continuing series. Come back in a couple days for the next chapter.

Please note that tells are not an exact science.  They can, and do, vary from player to player.  However, some of the more common tells are usually accurate especially for players at lower stakes.  Players at higher stakes may throw fake tells at you to try and get you to make the wrong move.  This is one situation where knowing your opponent is extremely valuable.

I'll start off with 3 scenarios and then post what the tells mean separately.  I'm not going to go right into what the tell means because I want you to think about it for a minute before I do. 

1) You’re sitting at a $2/$4 no-limit cash game, which has been surprisingly tight for the most part. The under-the-gun player limps, and as the action goes around the table you notice that the under-the-gun player has been watching the action carefully. When it gets to you there are a total of 4 people in the pot, and you have A-10 on the big blind, not a bad hand, but not strong either. What do you do?

2) You’re at a table that has been playing fairly quickly all night. No one is really playing trash hands, so they’re pretty quick to throw them away. One such player looks at his hole cards and sits up as the action gets to him. His hand reachs for chips before he stops, looks at his hand again, and just calls. What does he have?

3) You’re on the button and you have pocket jacks. It has folded around to you and you’re counting out a raise when the big blind coughs and starts stacking out chips to call, or prehaps raise with when the action gets to him. What do you do?

-------------------------------------------------------

1) Check and proceed with caution. The under-the-gun player is watching carefully because he is hoping for a raise so he can come back over the top. While you could often get away with a steal in this position this is not the spot for it. Check and if you don’t hit a big flop, don’t get too attached.

2) There are a couple possibilities, it will ultimately depend on the player. The most likely scenario is that he has a marginal hand like A-10 suited, or pocket sevens and was going to raise, but decided to limp in and hope to flop big before getting too much money in the pot. It’s also possible that the player has a monster, so if the player was in early position, you should proceed with caution if you pick up a strong hand yourself and are considering raising preflop. However, if the player is in late position and there are a few limpers already, it is extremely unlikely that someone is going to limp in with a big pocket pair and let everyone see a cheap flop.

3) He’s just trying to intimidate you. He wants to see a cheap flop, likely with a hand like 6-7 or a small pocket pair. Don’t give him a free flop, and don’t give him the pot odds to make the call.

Sunday, June 26, 2011

All-in Bluff

This article is a response to a move that I see over and over again at the poker table, and continually see it cost people their entire stack when it really doesn’t need to. That move is the all-in bluff.

The problem with the move is that more often than not it works, and I think that’s why people keep using it. From a risk/reward standpoint though, it’s really not a profitable move. Though it can be in cash games, especially when you’re up against a poor player you have a good read on, but typically calls smaller bets on the river just to keep you honest. During a tournament however, it should almost never be used. More often than not when the bluff is made, the pot is much smaller than the size of the all-in, and you’re putting all your chips at risk. A couple scenarios I’ve seen lately:

1) No-Limit Hold’em Tournament: About 140 players entered and there were about 100 left. We started with 3000 chips and blinds were 30/60. The action had been fairly tight for the most part, but we had a few players knocked out at our table already. There were 8 players at the table when the following took place:

The first player to act limps in, and the next two players fold. The following player limps in and right after him “Johnny” pushes in his entire stack of 4380 chips from the cutoff.

Before we get into what happened afterwards, let’s examine the bet itself.

With the blinds and two limpers, there was a total 210 chips in the pot. He was willing to risk 4380 chips to win 210. That means everyone has to fold over 95% of the time in order for it to be profitable. He’s going to get called by Jacks or better, and AQ or better. Each player has about a 4.2% chance of being dealt such a hand, so with 3 players left to act and two limpers, there’s about a 20% chance one of them has a hand they’re going to be calling with, and with the player under the gun just limping, his chances are probably higher.

Well it turns out the utg limper did have a hand, and “Johnny” was in horrible shape with all his chips in the middle with K-10 facing pocket kings.  He was knocked out of the tournament, but even if he had gotten lucky, he wouldn't have been in much better shape than he was before the hand.

2) No-Limit Hold’em Tournament: About 220 players entered and there were about 80 left. We started with 3000 chips, blinds were 200/400. “Jack” and I had just been moved to this table from one that was broken. Jack had about 9500 chips, a bit more than average. 9-handed table:

Under the gun folds, a min-raise by the next player. The next 4 players fold around to “Jack” on the button who calls with Q♦J♦. It folds around and the flop comes 10♦5♣9♦. The preflop raiser bets 400 and “Jack” calls. The turn is the 10♣. The preflop raiser again bets 400 and “Jack” calls. The river is the 10♥. The preflop raiser bets 400 once again and “Jack” goes all-in. The preflop raiser quickly called and took the pot with A♦5♦.

In this scenario, the all-in screamed “call me, I missed my draws”. Very few players are going to fold their full houses here, because if you had a better one or the last ten, you would be trying to get money, not pushing 7900 into a pot of 4200.

In both situations the players were knocked out of the tournaments because they put all their chips in on a bluff when there is really no need to. A smaller bluff is going to be just as, if not more effective in almost every situation. Putting all your chips at risk on the hope that your opponent will fold with nothing to back it up if he does call, is just silly.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Debating a Call on the River

I was recently playing in a home game with my new roommate and some of his friends, and I was taking a minute to decide whether to call a big bet on the river or not, when my roommate looks at me and says "just call or fold, what the hell is there to think about?"  I immediately thought "Wow, that's a pretty intensive question, where do I even begin?"

Now, he was obviously a fairly new player, but even so I see more experienced players rushing into decisions every day.  It got me thinking though, what do I really think about when I'm debating a call, fold, or raise on the river.  The simple answer is a lot of things.

I've made a lot of money making calls that look unbelievably stupid from the outside looking in.  Quite often, if someone looked at my hand and saw I was debating calling a bet on the river, they'd assume that I'm a terrible player.  Calling a bet on the river with 4th pair is generally a bad idea, but poker is not a game of generalities, it's a game of situations, and in that situation it might not be a bad idea.  Now to be fair, I've lost a decent amount of money by calling and losing in these situations, but the payoff has been far greater.  I'm not saying call every bet on the river of course, like I said, there's a lot to think about.

It begins with going over the history I have with the specific player.  What kind of player is he?  Agressive?  Passive?  Reckless?  Does he bluff a lot in these situations or is he the type of player who is usually going to check down.  While I already have a basic idea of how he plays, it's important that you keep revisiting it as players do not usually play the same way all the time.  Emotions and other things can dramatically alter someones play.  When going over my history with that player I put much more weight in his recent play than I do his play a couple hours, days, or weeks ago.

Next I replay the entire hand in my head.  What did he do pre-flop?  On the flop?  On the turn?  How does this compare to his play in previous hands?  Is the bet he made bigger or smaller than normal?  If he's been fairly passive most of the hand, what improvements could he have gotten from the river card?  If he's been fairly agressive most of the hand, what could he have that he wouldn't be scared of being beat?

Using that information, I try to figure out how likely he is to be bluffing.  Is it a 35% chance or only a 10% chance?  Then I compare that to the bet size in relation to the size of the pot.  If his bet is 10% of the pot, than there only needs to be a 10% chance he's bluffing for that call to be profitable.  For example, if the bet is $100 and the pot before was $900, and I believe there is a 10% chance he's bluffing, then it's a profitable call.  I'm going to lose the hand 9 times out of 10, but I'm only going to lose $100 each time I lose while the one time out of ten he is bluffing I'm going to make $1000 for a profit of $100 every 10 hands.

Of course, there are times when I'm not going to be able to reach a good decision through all these questions.  This is where I start my opponent down.  Typically, if your opponent looks up at you and sees you staring at him, and looks away, he's more likely to be bluffing.  But if he meets your gaze, he's more likely to have a hand.  If he never looks up at all, where is he looking?  If he's looking down at the pot, he's more likely to be bluffing, if he's looking away at something not related to the hand, he's more likely to have a hand.

As you can see, I ask myself a lot of questions in these situations, and that's why it sometimes takes a minute or two to come to a decision.  I'm not a savant by any stretch of the imagination, and I can't sift through all the information in a few seconds.  I'm also not going to let someone else's impaitence impact my decision.  I wouldn't try to rush you and force you into a bad decision.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Outplay your opponents, but don't Overplay them.

This is an important concept that should be put into practice at every table you sit down at.  You can be the best player at the table by a long shot, but if you're overplaying your opponents, you will consistently lose.  The concept is very simple.  There are several different levels of players:

Level 1: These are players on tilt, or occasionally drunk players.  They don't think whatsoever, not even about their own hands.  They are overly reckless and willing to put money in the pot with any two cards no matter what they are and whats on the board.

Level 2: These are beginning players.  They only think about their hand and give no consideration to what you might be holding.

Level 3: These are slightly advanced beginners.  They think about what they have and what you might have, but the thought process goes no further then that.

Level 4: Most players fall into this catagory.  They think about what they have, what you have, and what they think you think they have.

Level 5: The more experienced players will fall into this catagory.  They think about what they have, what you have, what they think you think they have, and what you think they think you think they have.

I'm not going to go any further then that, because it just becomes a nuisance to type out, but the levels could conceivably extend infinitely.  They don't really, but it's impossible to know where they stop without playing everyone, and you'll rarely run into players above level 5 except at the really high stakes anyway.

Now, the reason it is important not to overplay your opponent is because if you are playing at level 4 you are going to make decisions based largely on what hand you think your opponent is putting you on.  If your opponent is only playing at level 2 then he is not putting you on a hand at all, and making decisions based on something he's not thinking about will lead to a lot of mistakes on your part.  Even though you are clearly the better player, there is a good chance he is going to beat you if your decisions are based on something he's not thinking about.

Of course, you still need to outplay your opponents in order to win.  In order to do that consistently you need to be thinking one level ahead of your opponent.  This becomes difficult with players you don't know because you first have to determine what level they are playing at.  There is not a lot of advice I can give on determining what level your opponents are playing at except to watch carefully.  Don't try to get tricky for the first few rounds and pay attention to how your opponents are playing.  Play relatively safe and, once again, WATCH CAREFULLY.  After a couple of rounds you should have an idea of where most of the players at the table are at.  Now is the time to switch gears and start playing a little more aggressively, focusing on playing each player one level above where they are playing.  This can change throughout the course of a game so you still need to be constantly evaluating each player at the table.  If you aren't involved in a hand it is a great time to pay careful attention to each player that is involved and reevaluate them because you have nothing else to think about.

Welcome to the blog

Hey guys, thanks for checking out my new blog.  The plan is for this to be an educational poker blog.  I've read several articles from various sites online that claim to teach you how to win at poker, but most of them seem to be stuck in the past, or just teach you ABC poker.  Poker has changed dramatically over the past several years, and what worked in 2004 isn't going to work as well today.  The average player is smarter, and far better then he or she was 10 years ago, and ABC poker is not going to be a winning strategy in today's game.  It can work at the low limits, but any reasonable stakes is going to require a lot more strategy if you don't want to lose a ton of money.

A little history about me:

I'm a 24 year old former online pro that has been forced to find a new way to make a living by our federal government and the Department of Justice's unconstitutional actions against the online poker industry.  My educational background includes a degree in psychology with a mathematics minor, but a standard 9-5 job where I'm forced to work a set schedule was never really of interest to me.  I played poker throughout college as a way to support myself without having to find a "real job", and during that time realized that this was my calling.

I hope this can be the beginning of a great, mutually beneficial relationship between myself and the rest of the poker community.  I've got several articles planned, the first of which will be up later tonight.  Others that are already written should be up over the next couple weeks, and I'll continue to write more after that.  Enjoy the reading, and I hope you learn something along the way :)
 
Dreamhost promotional code